Monday, March 6, 2017

A Political equation in Uttar Pradesh never changed “Even for BJP”

"If we are taking into account of the past equations and Political Traditions, the 2017 assembly election will see similar Result. BJP already estimated it....through the desperation for Narendra Modi and his team clearly corroborating the evidence....in opposite side, the answer is clear for the questions like, Why BSP is not aggressive in Election campaign? Why Congress Withdrawn the "Priyanka Campaign" in the middle? Why SP- Congress is so casual in campaigns?"

Uttar Pradesh Assembly Election 2017, an comparison 


Who is going to win India’s most decisive Political Battle which is undergoing in Uttar Pradesh for 403 Assembly seats?  At present context, a tricky question to answer due to two things, primarily for the restrictions of Election Commission and secondly, the paid publicity and Campaigns surrounded the facts. Contrary to the Restrictions, personal opinions in Social Media and panel discussions flooded with calculations and predictions. It might not be so difficult to predict the result but it is more difficult to categorize who are wrong and right.  Why? I can represent the words of India’s first anti congress Prime Minister Moraji Desai on the political predictions “An expert gives an objective view...he gives his own view”. Since taking into account everyone is correct in their calculations and predictions I here giving some facts and figures which can throw some light on the political traditions and election equations of the winners and losers.
Congress lost its political image and influence on Uttar Pradesh during the emergency. Although it regained its position in the assembly and general election held soon after the death of Indira Gandhi yet could not last long. 1985 assembly election was the last election where Congress got an absolute majority with 269 seats especially due to the sympathy for the assassination of Indira Gandhi. In 1989 General and assembly election parliament seats reduced to 15 and assembly seats to 94. However Congress managed to save its political reflection through a meticulously planned alliance with ace regional forces.
Almost for the last 40 years, except 1977 and 1985 election the politics has been based on caste & religion.  Since the disintegration of the Janata Dal the fight is between Regional parties and BJP. In the Uttar Pradesh election BJP always played religious card whereas Regional parties like BSP, SP and RLD has their own agenda on caste. In 1991 BJP with a whopping majority (221 seats) won the election solely on Ram Mandir and Hindu revival Issue. But it could not last long. SP and BSP emerged as ace forces for the CM race. 1993 assembly election had seen a curious situation, where two opposition political parties united only to counter BJP’s Religious agenda. In the latter years, BJP tried to grab the power through alliance but soon realized that it is a sour relation and could not grant desirable result.
In 2002, SP won 143 assembly seats while BSP 98 and BJP 88 seats. Congress and RLD were satisfied with 25 and 14 each. In 2007 assembly election BSP won 206 seats, SP 97, BJP 51, Cong 22 and RLD 10.  In 2012 assembly election SP won 224 seats, BSP 80, BJP 47, Congress 28, RLD 9.
If we took into the account of the comparison between General elections and Assembly elections than it is clear that General election has less effect on Assembly Election and vice versa. For example in 2009 general election 2004 SP won 35 out of 80 seats, BSP 19, BJP 10 and Congress 9, but in 2007 election BSP emerged as a winner. Similarly, in 2009 SP got 23 out of 80, Cong 21, BSP 20 and BJP 10. Despite 21 seats congress managed to save 28 assembly seats.
If we taking into account of the past equations and Political Traditions, the 2017 assembly election will show a similar picture. BJP already estimated it and the desperation for Narendra Modi and his team clearly corroborating the evidence.
There are Five major things which can be summarized for “Why BJP’s ambition to regain UP cannot be fulfilled”
  • 1.        BJP could not able to polarize Hindu Vote unlike earlier elections
  • 2.       South UP where the Narendra Modi’s parliamentary constituency falls is surrounded by BSP and Congress vote banks. It is quite difficult to pull the voters from Congress Vote banks, the only option is BSP but BSP already polarized the votes against RSS and BJP’s anti-reservation policy.
  • 3.       BJP cornered Muslim in the distribution of seats but more reliant on his ‘divide and rule’ trick for the Muslim votes. But it could not break through its own plan.  
  • 4.       There is no Chief Ministerial Candidate and the entire election affairs have been handled by the Modi-Saha team, which gives limited access to the publicity to owe voters unlike “UP ke ladke”(UP’s own children slogan by SP-Congress alliance). Narendra Modi tried to save his plan by promoting “Adopted son” but failed utterly. Besides this, the entire election campaign based on the “Modi’s Charisma” which is not as before.
  • 5.       BJP speculated that it will get benefit from the Mulayam Family feud and anti-incumbency factors but in contrary family feud more or less cleaned the dark marks on the Akhilesh, like link to anti-social elements and anti-incumbency. Surprisingly, BSP also not targeting the SP rather speared against BJP.