Tuesday, September 5, 2017

BRICS-2017’s ‘counter terrorism’ agenda: Modi Govt’s Hype Vs Reality



After a complex search to find out what is the exact terminology which can deliver exact position of Narendra Modi, Prime Minister of India on Counterterrorism in the 9th BRICS summit, I found an Interesting Idiom mostly appropriate-‘Try to steal someone’s Thunder’.
According to Oxford Dictionary of Idioms, the meaning is, ‘Try to win praise for oneself by pre-empting someone else’s attempt to impress’.  As we go deep, the origin of the Idiom also proves equal dramatic; The critic and playwright John Dennis (1657-1734) invented a new method of simulating the sound of thunder in the theater, which he employed in his unsuccessful play 'Appius and Virginia'. Shortly after his play had finished its brief run, Dennis attended a performance of 'Macbeth' in which the improved thunder effect was used, and he is reported to have exclaimed in a fury: 'Damn them! They will not let my play run, but they steal my thunder.

However, as an Indian to prove one’s “True Nationalism Identity” one must accept that in BRICS summit Narendra Modi graciously own the battle against Islamist terrorism even though it is like ‘Error of the first kind” according to the null hypothesis in statistics.
According to the hypothesis, this is an error which leads one to conclude that a supposed effect or relationship exists when in fact it doesn't. For example, a test that shows a patient to have a disease when in fact the patient does not have the disease.
In the joint declaration of the 9th BRICS summit, there are 3 specific components and 70 resolutions. Under the International Peace and Security component, there are 24 resolutions.  In it all the BRICS countries equivocally rejected any type of violence, radicalization and called international community to work for international peace, security, and to promote and protect Human Right. The joint declaration gives foremost importance to the conflicts and crisis of Syria, Israel-Palestine and other Middle East; Iraq, Yemen and crisis in the Gulf countries; North Korea; African Countries like Congo, Libya, South Sudan, Somalia and Central Africa Republic, Western Sahara; and Afghanistan.  All these countries directly related to Russia’s Interest.  
In the context of Afghanistan, the declaration seriously concerned about the terrorist organizations like the Taliban, ISIL/DAISH, Al-Qaida and its affiliates including Eastern Turkistan Islamic Movement, Islamic Movement of Uzbekistan, the Haqqani network, Lashkar-e-Taiba, Jaish-e-Mohammad, TTP and Hizb ut-Tahrir. Further it is mentioned two important points to extend support – one is, the Moscow Format of consultations on Afghanistan and “Heart of Asia-Istanbul Process” and other is, multimodal connectivity projects to promote peace and stability.
If one analyze thoroughly, both the points nowhere related to the India. As the American president Donald Trump re-affirmed its military position on Afghanistan, Both Russia and China have remained skeptical to it. Secondly, For China it is not Pakistan but Afghanistan is more important when it comes to its much ambitious China-Pakistan Energy corridor and One Belt One Road (OBOR), as both the routes linked to Kabul, the capital of Afghanistan. Extending its ambition further China plans to expand the route beyond the Afghanistan and Pakistan Border. The threat of Islamist terrorist organizations is much perceived after recentattacks and warnings. (We can recall the Pakistan’s attempt to link the terrorist attack on china’s construction employees in Pakistan to Kulbhushan Jadhav.)
Even though China had unsuccessfully persuaded India to sign OBOR earlier, but it has not withdrawn itself to push the issue diplomatically. China knows without standing firm or sending stern warning against the terrorist organizations it cannot successfully complete its dream project either in Pakistan or in Afghanistan. In addition to this, China also knows well that Russia is the only country which can safe guard its interest in this reason.  
Besides this, the BRICS economic agenda is more or less created diplomatically to subdue the influence of the World Bank especially in Asia, where the monopoly of the US and other European Countries is discernible.
Under the Narendra Modi’s three year rule India’s External Diplomacy has developed some of its serious flaws except increase the number of “awkward hugging”. He has failed to bring a clear consensus on its economic and diplomatic issues. Diplomatic relationship with its neighboring countries is at a mediocre level. On the other hand China extended its sway both economically and diplomatically over all the surrounding countries of India. In the last three years, from the south-east Asia region, there is no single country which has spoken a word in support of India in its hue and cry against Islamist Terrorism, From the Middle East except Israel no country stands behind ( at least for the time being) India on this issue. China never categorically supported India on it.

In the 9th BRICS summit, India’s only perceptible benefit comes from the 40th resolution which states that Russia and China will support the aspiration of Brazil, South Africa and India for a greater role in United Nations Security Council.  But in the context of acting against Islamist terrorist groups, India can only console itself that two/three terrorist operatives which are posed danged to its internal security and hype it as its “great win” even knows well that it cannot yield a desirable result. 

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