Critical analysis of Narendra Modi’s UP Win: Survival of the Fittest

After the spectacular Winning Streak of Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP) in the Uttar Pradesh and Uttarakhand Our Prime Minister Narendra Modi Twitted by congratulating the voters and incessant workers. Reacting to the twit I have written “Fate prevails everywhere, neither Force of work nor the high education, but congrats for your win.”

My observation must draw severe criticism and might be doing injustice to the noble workers who worked for the Narendra Modi without any want of favour, but I’m right in my view in one point, as it is purely to understand the conducive environment on which Narendra Modi or BJP has least role.

 

BJP won 312 seats excluding its ally like Apana Dal out of 403 assembly seats. Similarly in Uttarkhand it won with thumping majority of 57 seats out of 70 seats. This winning is unprecedented and even unexpected (!) for BJP itself.  All the exit poll predictions went wrong, All psephologist miscalculated the caste and religion oriented vote base. Although, it is not a big deal for BJP to win in Uttar Pradesh as it has satisfactory presence since last 40 years since the party’s inception. It also seized power three times (for 6 years) Kalyan Singh became CM two times (June 1991- Dec 1992 & September 1997 to November 1999) and Rajnath Singh for one time (October 2000 to March 2002). In the 2014 General Election BJP won 71 MP seats out of 80. But the Point of Discussion is, the Collapse of caste and religion based electoral and Whopping majority to a religious agenda based party in Uttar Pradesh (Amazingly Even after opposition from Rajnath Singh, Sahanwaj Hussain etc Modi and Amit Saha did not give a single ticket to a Muslim Candidate).  How and Why BJP got such big mandate? We will analysis thoroughly the possible answers but before that it is relevant to throw some light on the Saffron surge in India.

Until now BJP has its chief minister in 11 states- Arunachal Pradesh, Assam, Chhattisgarh, Jharkhand, Gujarat, Haryana, Rajasthan, Madhya Pradesh, Maharashtra, Uttar Pradesh, Uttarakhand and with allies it enjoying power in another Four states- Andhra Pradesh, Jammu and Kashmir, Sikkim and Nagaland out of 29 states.

In 2014 general election BJP led NDA got absolute majority 282 seats excluding its allies (total 336). It got 171,660,230 popular votes which is 31.34% of the total votes polled. If we take the popular votes and percentage with 1999 general election which is another biggest achievement of the BJP, (as this is the first time in India where a non congress government lasts full five year term) in 1999 BJP led NDA won 254 seats out of BJP won 182 seats but the popular votes were 135,103,344 which is 37.06% of the total votes polled. If we compare between 1998 general election and 2014 in a nutshell, the impressive presence of the left parties and political inclination towards regional parties were clearly visible. It was the golden era of regional parties.

But now things has been changed, left parties lost their grip over Indian voters except Kerala and shrinking of vote base of regional parties. 2014 is a political transition period.

The period between 2009 and 2014 is the last phase of the electoral system, which has been continued since 1952. The voters are from new generations, less influenced by the independence struggle but more to create their own new identity. Since 2004, many Socio-psychological factors reshaped the Political Scenario. Growing literacy and lack of employment opportunities in both Government and Private sector people created their own opportunities. For this they wanted a less hassle free system which free from corruption and more space for economic independence which previous government failed to answer. The Demonetisation has given the best answer to it at least theoretically. More poor and middle class People perceived that this will rearrange the past economic system where they had been deprived from the opportunities. This is a blessing of disguise for Narendra Modi Government. Nationalism and abhorrence to alien inhabitants are other aspects of this ‘Economic Independency’.

Some Noted Journalists like Rajdeep Sardesai and Pallavi Ghosh pointed out the BJP’s Campaign through the Ujala Scheme much before the election. Some Pointed out the BJP’s Support to abolish Tripple Talaq and subsequently Muslim women support to it. Just Before the UP election RSS again tossed its anti reservation agenda, but it couldn’t hold the ground where 60% population are under this reservation benefit. BSP’s Supremo Mayawati wanted to take this issue forward but unlike Bihar election miraculously it died before gaining Political momentum.

Lets a close look of the caste wise division of voters in UP, 22% are from forward castes, 40% from OBC (including 18% Muslim) and 21.3% Dalits (SC/STs). Even after this, Most of the BJP candidates won with more than 15 thousand votes than their nearest candidate.

Besides this, there was image tarnishing issues against BJP as anti liberty, anti secular, hardcore Hindutwa agenda, Hooliganism in Educational institutes particularly in and around the Uttar Pradesh. But BJP saved from the onslaught putting forth the Nationalist agenda. Even Narendra Modi and his team until now except publicity have not done anything to solve the real nationalism issues.

The linking of terrorism to a particular religion is always the voice of BJP’s frontal organisation. The Lucknow Thakurganj encounter, Accquital of Swami Assemananda in Ajmer Dargha Blast case, Madhya Pradesh Train accident, etc might be created havoc for BJP, but it has little impact on the BJP’s Image.

The Political environment in the neighbouring states Except Bihar and Delhi all are under BJPs rule. This created a positive vibes among the voters. Bihar, where BJP lost assembly election might influence some on the northern parts but couldn’t happen.  RLD’s Lalu Yadav campaigned against BJP, but Nitish Kumar remained silent or more less supported the BJP through his endorsement for Demonetisation.

In the 2014 general election BJP got 42.3% vote share, while SP 22.2%, BSP 20% and Congress with 7.5 percent vote share. It was believed that there was no anti-incumbency against SP’s Akhilesh Yadav. But the family feud cost him dear more than garnish his image. SP Believed that for the winning in assembly election one has to get 31% vote, if it joined hand with Congress both will get almost same vote share. It is the point where most of us including I failed to understand. BJP’s Vote share remained intact.

The Gathbandhan strategy was not properly calculated and even overly estimated. In the 11^th March Akhilesh Yadav around 10 am said he has no hesitation to go for alliance with BSP to defeat BJP. But this should be planned before. If we count the vote share this will be clearly understood. In 2017 assembly election BJP and its allies begged 34,403,039 popular votes which is 39.7% vote share. Similarly SP+Congress’s popular vote is 18,923,689 (21.8%) and BSP’s 19,281,352 (22.2%)

Infrastructural development like express Highway not able to allure voters who were reeling under the 20 years misrule of BSP and SP, no improvement in the internal infrastructure like roads, school, Hospitals etc.

Under current against SP and in favour of BJP is never be materialised without the active support of Government Officers especially in law order situation and election management. They supported BJP alike the active Karyakartas of BJP and RSS.

The alleged EVM fraud is only a small part which contributed for the BJP’s Victory the other things which helped is the skilful management of the situation. It was clearly visible soon after the 4 phase election all the major national media supported the BJP and campaigned for it. 

A Political equation in Uttar Pradesh never changed “Even for BJP”

"If we are taking into account of the past equations and Political Traditions, the 2017 assembly election will see similar Result. BJP already estimated it....through the desperation for Narendra Modi and his team clearly corroborating the evidence....in opposite side, the answer is clear for the questions like, Why BSP is not aggressive in Election campaign? Why Congress Withdrawn the "Priyanka Campaign" in the middle? Why SP- Congress is so casual in campaigns?"

Uttar Pradesh Assembly Election 2017, an comparison 

Who is going to win India’s most decisive Political Battle which is undergoing in Uttar Pradesh for 403 Assembly seats?  At present context, a tricky question to answer due to two things, primarily for the restrictions of Election Commission and secondly, the paid publicity and Campaigns surrounded the facts. Contrary to the Restrictions, personal opinions in Social Media and panel discussions flooded with calculations and predictions. It might not be so difficult to predict the result but it is more difficult to categorize who are wrong and right.  Why? I can represent the words of India’s first anti congress Prime Minister Moraji Desai on the political predictions “An expert gives an objective view...he gives his own view”. Since taking into account everyone is correct in their calculations and predictions I here giving some facts and figures which can throw some light on the political traditions and election equations of the winners and losers.

Congress lost its political image and influence on Uttar Pradesh during the emergency. Although it regained its position in the assembly and general election held soon after the death of Indira Gandhi yet could not last long. 1985 assembly election was the last election where Congress got an absolute majority with 269 seats especially due to the sympathy for the assassination of Indira Gandhi. In 1989 General and assembly election parliament seats reduced to 15 and assembly seats to 94. However Congress managed to save its political reflection through a meticulously planned alliance with ace regional forces.

Almost for the last 40 years, except 1977 and 1985 election the politics has been based on caste & religion.  Since the disintegration of the Janata Dal the fight is between Regional parties and BJP. In the Uttar Pradesh election BJP always played religious card whereas Regional parties like BSP, SP and RLD has their own agenda on caste. In 1991 BJP with a whopping majority (221 seats) won the election solely on Ram Mandir and Hindu revival Issue. But it could not last long. SP and BSP emerged as ace forces for the CM race. 1993 assembly election had seen a curious situation, where two opposition political parties united only to counter BJP’s Religious agenda. In the latter years, BJP tried to grab the power through alliance but soon realized that it is a sour relation and could not grant desirable result.

In 2002, SP won 143 assembly seats while BSP 98 and BJP 88 seats. Congress and RLD were satisfied with 25 and 14 each. In 2007 assembly election BSP won 206 seats, SP 97, BJP 51, Cong 22 and RLD 10.  In 2012 assembly election SP won 224 seats, BSP 80, BJP 47, Congress 28, RLD 9.

If we took into the account of the comparison between General elections and Assembly elections than it is clear that General election has less effect on Assembly Election and vice versa. For example in 2009 general election 2004 SP won 35 out of 80 seats, BSP 19, BJP 10 and Congress 9, but in 2007 election BSP emerged as a winner. Similarly, in 2009 SP got 23 out of 80, Cong 21, BSP 20 and BJP 10. Despite 21 seats congress managed to save 28 assembly seats.

If we taking into account of the past equations and Political Traditions, the 2017 assembly election will show a similar picture. BJP already estimated it and the desperation for Narendra Modi and his team clearly corroborating the evidence.

There are Five major things which can be summarized for “Why BJP’s ambition to regain UP cannot be fulfilled”

• 1.        BJP could not able to polarize Hindu Vote unlike earlier elections
• 2.       South UP where the Narendra Modi’s parliamentary constituency falls is surrounded by BSP and Congress vote banks. It is quite difficult to pull the voters from Congress Vote banks, the only option is BSP but BSP already polarized the votes against RSS and BJP’s anti-reservation policy.
• 3.       BJP cornered Muslim in the distribution of seats but more reliant on his ‘divide and rule’ trick for the Muslim votes. But it could not break through its own plan.  
• 4.       There is no Chief Ministerial Candidate and the entire election affairs have been handled by the Modi-Saha team, which gives limited access to the publicity to owe voters unlike “UP ke ladke”(UP’s own children slogan by SP-Congress alliance). Narendra Modi tried to save his plan by promoting “Adopted son” but failed utterly. Besides this, the entire election campaign based on the “Modi’s Charisma” which is not as before.
• 5.       BJP speculated that it will get benefit from the Mulayam Family feud and anti-incumbency factors but in contrary family feud more or less cleaned the dark marks on the Akhilesh, like link to anti-social elements and anti-incumbency. Surprisingly, BSP also not targeting the SP rather speared against BJP.