DO YOU NEED UNEMPLOYMENT???

Employment is a situation which is born with the Industrial Revolution and brought up by Economic Liberalisation and Capitalism. So, Employment, Unemployment and Underemployment need a three-way explanation (a) Psychologically (b) Economically (c) Sociologically. 

Among all the explanations, Economic explanation is itself a self-explanatory to the raising issues of employment. The Economic definition of Employment is “Individual income derived from work and in turn, it affects the productivity of the Society or a Nation” So, Skills, Health, Education, Intelligence all are necessary components of an Individual’s Productivity component. 

Similarly, Psychological Explanation stress upon the willingness to work. Alber Lauterbach In his article published in American Journal says, “at any rate the “Wish to work” as a felt need that transcends the requirement of having a source of income is rather widespread and represents the striving for a social function and a feeling of being useful to others.” This explanation surely implies the need of strong Nationalism feeling. 

The Three Major sectors, where one can get employment are; (a) Agriculture (b) Industry (c) Service. 

Employment is divided into two major categories a. Self-employed and (b) employed by a firm, organisation, person etc. Again it is classified by the type of employment as (a) temporary worker (b) part-time worker (c) Permanent Worker. 

Under the Industrial Disputes Act, employees working in a managerial or administrative capacity, or those employed in a supervisory capacity earning more than Rs 10,000 per month, are excluded from the scope of this definition. 

Under the Industrial Employment (Standing Orders) Act 1946 classify workmen according to the nature of the employment as (a) permanent, (b) Probationers, (c) Badli or casual, (d) Temporary 

The hue and cries on Present Unemployment are more political and less practical, Why?

First understand few things pointwise; (1) Shrinking Agriculture land thus increase of Temporary Labour force (2) Growing automation means minimize the use of Manual Labour Force, as most of the industries using contractual or probation labour force, so there is increase in unemployment (3) Lack of Skills/ Education also contribute the growth of unemployment of unskilled labour force (4) The participation of workforce of Muslim Population is much lower than the other religious population (5) the lowering participation of women folks also contributes overall downfall of work productivity of Hindustan. 

The CIME says the present unemployment rate for July 2019 is 7.6%. It also says the growing unemployment is due to the downfall of the automobile industry. The Downfall of Diesel/Petrol based automobile is a global phenomenon, even many countries discouraging the growth of carbon-emitting automobiles. According to the Data from the Ministry of Labour and Employment, the State-wise unemployment rate for persons aged 15yrs and above on usual status basis during 2012-13 to 2015-16, Hindustan’s unemployment rate is 4% (2012-13), 3.4 (2013-14) & 3.7 (2015-16). The International Labour Organisation says, actually there is more unemployment in 15 to 24 years age group but the unemployment percentage of above 25+ yrs age remained almost the same since 2012. 😆

Besides this, the increase of unemployment is an indirect consequence of General Election, as most of the government investment has been stalled due to Budgeting of Government Investments. 

Similarly, the NDA II passed the Minimum Wages Act to ensure minimum wages will sure change the employment/Unemployment scenario of Future India. 

👉My answer to the present unemployment scene is temporary and will wither out within one and two months.

You can read further analysis on unemployment at my blog ;🧐 👉

https://lambodarprasaddash.blogspot.com/…/unemployment-in-i…

And👉 My HUMBLE REQUEST DEVELOPE THE FEELING OF NATIONALITY AND INCREASE YOUR SKILLS, POSITIVE APPROACH & PRODUCTIVITY and ESPECIALLY DON’T FALL PREY TO THESE SECULAR, LIBERAL, LEFT and CONGI BRIGADES' PROPAGANDA. 

Jai Hind

VandeMataram

Unemployment in India: Truth Vs Reality

Different groups of the non-employed have vastly different likelihood of transitioning into employment. For example, people who want jobs have 13-14.5% probability of employment, while retired or disabled individuals have less than 2% probability of becoming employed. The unemployed are also a heterogeneous group. The short-term unemployed are twice as likely to enter the workforce as the long-term unemployed, who in turn are twice as likely as people who are out of the labour force but want a job.

(MARIANNA KUDLYAK, "Measuring Labor Utilization: The Non-Employment Index", FRBSF Economic Letter, March 27, 2017)

Lambodar Prasad Dash

Before 2019 general election, Opposition Parties vehemently attacked Narendra Modi led NDA-2 Govt for failing to provide jobs as Modi himself promised it during 2014 election campaigns. Modi in a Political rally in UP on 23, Nov 2013 said 65% of the Indian population is below 35 years age and they are struggling under “unemployment”. UPA failed to provide Jobs to educated Youths despite its promise in 2009 elections, if BJP came to power it will provide 1 crore Jobs. The whole accusations and counter-accusations seem to be like causality dilemma of Egg or Chicken.

What is present India reeling under, Unemployment or Un Employment? Before answering the question lets analyse some historical facts and data;

Unemployment or joblessness is the state of being without any work yet looking for work. It is also a key economic indicator which describes the ability/inability of workers to readily obtain gainful work to contribute productive output of the economy. In simple terms less works means less total economic production and high rate of labour participation means high economic production. However, the low rate of unemployment is not at all a good sign of economics as it implies overheating the economy, inflationary pressure and tight condition for business. So we need to contain unemployment ratio at a balanced rate. Economists divide unemployment into 4 major types; Cyclical, Structural, Classical or institutional and Frictional or transitional.

Unemployment Trend, Table-1

Cyclical as the word itself implies it is temporary in nature and directly linked to economic boom and recession. Structural is linked with technological change; the rate of automation determines the use of manual labour. Institutional is the most negative type of unemployment, as it is a consequence of long term government policies like populist, generous social benefits programs, high rate of unionization, Restrictive occupational licensing laws. Another type of unemployment is Hidden Unemployment or underemployment or disguised unemployment. This type of unemployment is a by-product when the agrarian economy shifts to Industry or service. People of this type of category generally not willing to work or their overall productivity has so meagre that can’t influence economic growth.

Unemployment Trend sector wise, Table-2

Now analyse the data related to employment and unemployment in India (See Tables 1 to 5). The unemployment rate is equal to the total unemployed workers divided by total labour force multiplied by 100. According to the CMIE on 31 May 2019 (30-day moving average) the unemployment rate in India is 7.1%, (See Table-7)in Urban areas it is 8.6% and in rural areas, it is 6.5%. The April 2019 unemploymentdata of states shows Haryana which is mostly an agrarian state which is under transition towards rapid urbanisation and industrialisation, having highest unemployment rate i.e. 26.4 followed by Tripura (25.4%) which is one of the most literate states having 87.7% literate rate. The state’s GDP primarily depends on the service sector (53.98%), Agriculture & allied (23.07%), Industry (22.95%). Out of the total dependants in the secondary sector, 28.21%

Table-7

depends upon the retail sector. In the unemployment list 3^rd state with the highest unemployment

Unemployment Trend age-wise, Table-3

rate in Himachal Pradesh (19.6%) followed by Bihar and Jharkhand (12.2%), Uttar Pradesh (11.1%), Jammu Kashmir (10.6%), and states having lowest unemployment rate is Puduchery (0.4%), Karnataka (0.5%) Tamil Nadu (1.2%), Meghalaya (2.3%), Telengana (2.7%), Gujarat (3%), Chhattisgarh (3.4%).  Almost 15 states falls below and 11 states are above the national average unemployment rate.

If we look at the annual average rate of unemployment, it is not so worrying. The unemployment data of the CEIC on India shows that since Dec 2007 the unemployment rate is not crossed more than 3 percent. It was highest in 2013 (2.823) and Lowest was in 2008(2.268) and in 2018 it is 2.551. Even the data of the International Labour Organisation (ILO) shows that the unemployment rate of India is 2.6%.  CEIC data shows that the Labour Force Participation Rate (LFPR) has been decreasing since 1990. In 1990, the LFPR is 58.6%, and in 20

Unemployment Trend years-wise, Table-4

17 it is 52% and in 2018 it further decreased to 51.9%. There is some peculiarity in the Labour Force Participation Rate, Unemployment and GDP, in most of The developed countries LFPR is increasing but correspondingly GDP and unemployment rises but in the context of India LFPR and unemployment is decreasing but has good GDP growth.

The “peculiarity” trend is directly linked to the increase of Skills of the workforce, In 2002 the labour productivity was 1.32% and in 2017 it was 4.82% and the figure for the current year is 5.80%.

Unemployment Trend, year-wise, Table-5

Now, look at the macroeconomic state of the India the Mining industry is increasing. The production and export of Coal, Aluminium, Gold, ICT goods are increased in recent years but there is a decrease in Telecommunication equipment, Medicinal and Pharmaceutical products. The RBI data shows that nations composite index for Infrastructure industry grew from 3.8% (2012-2013) to 4.3%(2017-18) in the base year of 2011-12. Similarly, if we look at the data of Industrial production it shows a positive trend. The Industrial production index of the Primary goods, Capital Goods, Intermediate goods, Construction goods, Consumer Durables, and Consumer non-durables for the March 2019 has an upward grid. The deposits of all Scheduled Commercial Banks for the 4^th quarter of the current years also show an affirmative movement.

Here, I feel it is necessary to present one of the critical observations by the “India WageReport-2018” (ILO) as it directly linked to the Unemployment issue. The report says, “Union density among salaried workers has fallen precipitously since 1993-94, by 17.7 percentage points to 28.8 percent, while it has increased for casual workers and among self-employed workers. There have been some attempts at unionizing worker in the informal economy, especially among home-based workers either to negotiate for minimum wages or to demand for better conditions (Brick Workers)...India was one of the first developing countries to introduce a minimum wage policy...despite this wage floor being non-binding, one estimate shows that in 2009-10, about 15 percent of salaried workers and 41 percent of casual workers (i.e. 62 million workers) were paid less than the indicative minimum wage and the rate of low pay was higher among women than men.”

From the above analysis, we can draw a few vital points which automatically speak the present “Employment” situation in India and these are as follows;

(a)    There is a decline in the labour force participation but growth in labour Productivity; it means the quality of labour is increasing and the quantity of labour force decreasing.

(b)    Unemployment in India is not as murkier, at least at this present situation as hyped by some intellectual & political quarters.

As we have discussed earlier that Government’s Populist or generous social welfare Schemes impinge on the upward growth of the unemployment. “The planning commission revealed in a remained constant in number at 55 million (poor) in the past 20 years despite high growth and high investment in IRDP and wage giving programs...The central and state governments together spend roughly Rs 42,000 crore a year on poverty alleviation programmes. in a sense, if the five crore odd poor families in the country were to be sent money orders, each would get more than Rs 8000 per annum, lifting them out of the poverty trench. Clearly, re-initiation of the mai-baap sarkar is not the answer.”( Excerpt from Anarticle in India Today on Union Budget 2004 by Shankar Aiyar and Rohit Sen)

The Government expenditure on populist programs increasing steadily since 1999-2000 and no government is thinking of a reformation which can bring long term and yielding benefit in terms of employment generation. Even Modi’s NDA-2 Govt(20014-2019) is not an exception to it, it also embraced the populist programs of the UPA-1 & 2 (2004-2014). “For instance, 61.4% of all capital expenditure outlined in the 2018-19 budget is slated to be financed through EBR, up from 54% in 2016-17. Similarly, while the budget made tall announcements related to spending on agriculture and rural livelihoods, the fine print shows that 84% of all such spending is slated to be financed outside the budget, with the biggest component being providing agriculture credit(See Table-6).” (Govt spending before Lok Sabha elections: What data Shows, Nikita Kwatra)

Table-6

Even after such robust spending on populist programs the poverty or unemployment not reduced desirably. “However, estimates of the planning commission show that in the period soon after the implementation of the economic reforms, from 1993-94 to 2004-05, despite high economic growth poverty declined by only 0.74 percentage points per annum...this led to the implementation of some right based developmental initiatives as part of the minimum needs programme such as MGNERGA-2005, UWSSA-2008, RSBY-2008, NFSA-2013, as a result, in the latter period i.e from 2004-05 to 2011-12, poverty declined by 2.2 percentage points per annum ” (IWR-2019, ILO). The World Bank data on India’s Poverty says, “in 2011, we estimate that 14% of the population (or some 306 million people) lived between 1.50 to 1.90 dollar a day ...now the number reduced to 70million (2018)” (See Table-8)

But ironically the unemployment rate increased more than the previous years i.e. 1993-2005. The current situation of Unemployment is directly proportional to the poverty alleviation and Socio-economic upliftment rate. India has meticulously escaped the 2008 global economic slowdown and put nation’s economic growth on a fast track since 2008-09 but the unemployment rate also increased. Some of the salient features of the current labour economic the situation of India are as follows;

Poverty Rate year-wise, Table-8

(a) The decline of the labour force is a regular phenomenon since 2011-12

 (b) There is an increase of labour force in the service sector

(b) Labour Force decreasing in agriculture and Industry sector

(c) The labour force participation rate of 15-29 age groups is than the 30-59 age groups

(d) The unemployment rate among the 15-29 age groups is higher than the 30-59 (e) unemployment rate is higher in urban than rural India.

As we have talked earlier that unemployment is also transitional and seasonal. During April to June, we can observe more unemployment in rural areas which is more related to agrarian and allied works.

The OECD data shows that the annual working hours per worker in India is 1710 hours. In USA it is 1780 hours/annum, for OECD countries it is 1746hrs/annum. Greece, Russia, Mexico, Korea, Costa Rica has more than 2000hr/annum per worker and Germany, Denmark, Norway and Netherland has the lowest working hours per annum per worker (below 1433hrs).

Similarly, the work participation rate religious faith wise data (TOI) shows that The average the work participation rate for India is 40%. Muslims have the lowest work participation rate i.e 33% whereas it is 41% for Hindus, Jains and Sikhs it is 36% each, Buddhists having a highest working population (43%) and these figures not much changed in a census decade (2001-2011)

If you see the Caste composition trends (between 2004-2015) of the principal sectors of the Indian Economy (State of Working India, 2018) you can see, SC population switching their jobs from Mining and construction to agriculture, manufacturing, whereas ST population migrating from agriculture to Mining, Manufacturing, construction and Services (Mining and Service has the highest). Similarly, other castes left service and manufacturing sector where they are dominating in 2004 and taking sides of the Agriculture and Mining sectors. However, the OBCs are most distress caste in relation to Jobs. In every principal sector their participation rate decreases. Means most OBCs left their jobs and became Hidden employment or people who are not willing to work.

In this juncture, the hue and cry for the increase in the unemployment rate is middle-of-the-road propaganda.  EdmundS. Phelps, a noble laureate in economic Science in 2006 put the healthy the unemployment rate for a country is between 3 to 7 percentage ratio. If The government will succumb to the furore, it will force to shift its concentration from Poverty alleviation and social welfare schemes, which will jeopardize the healthy economic growth and the whole thing will be like “For want of a nail the Shoe is Lost, for want of a shoe the horse is lost, for want of a horse the rider is lost”. So, My advice to the Government is to focus more on Labour Productivity and participation rate, to build Healthy working environment, Healthy working Population; Govt should bring out such plans where Women will participate in more productive works; Government should create such a working environment where we can retain more productive brains from going abroad. As “another simple way to define economic growth is as the sum of the hours that people work plus their output per hour or productivity...has had an average annual growth rate of about 3.5%, half of it came from population growth, more specifically labour force growth or more people working more hours” (The rise and fall of Nations, Ruchir Sharma, Page 18 & 19). Before concluding my Discussion I reiterate, “Deal gently with the bird you mean to catch”.

Vande Mataram

Growth through Hindus (Part-1)

Lambodar Prasad Dash

“...religion and religion alone is the life of India, and when that goes India will die, in spite of politics, In spite of social reforms, in spite of Kubera’s wealth, poured upon the head of every one of her children...” (Swami Vivekananda, 25 January 1897)

The Subject may raise several controversies; it may hurt the Seculars, Liberals, Communists, Marxists, socialists and Neo-Moderates who don’t believe “Natural Selection” or “Geographic Mosaic theory” or my theory based on How Natural Evolution selects particular population having certain physiological affinity, having distinct cultural correlations, common beliefs & Faith, Shared norms which in turn effects a particular territory’s Socio-Economic environment. My Issue may not directly relate to the general Nationalist Believe that a particular nation belongs to a particular Religion or Race. Whenever I mention “Religion” further in this article don’t take the religion in a narrow sense, as “Hinduism” is much wider connotation than so called definition of religion. Similarly, whenever I put the word “Race” don’t divide it Aryan or Dravidian, as I believe The Indo race is distinct from others and it is neither Aryan nor Dravidian.

Natural Environment like Geographical location, Geological patterns, Weather, Temperature, Humidity, Availability of Food, Arable land etc influence the Living Organisms. In simple understandings, the natural milieu selects which type of living being going to survive on its lap. Migratory or alien organisms may perish or evolve as predators and parasites.

In Biological terms, from simple single cell organisms to a complex living body and from a micro-territory to the Multiverse, everything is a self-explanatory example of Unity in Diversity. A secular brain always refers India, as a country of “Unity in Diversity”; the term is more politico-religious than Biological. As I have already said, my debate is not based on the narrow religious terminology, so I rejected the Religious diversified unity propaganda by mediocre political brains. Why I named Mediocre, you can comprehend later in this article.

A Nation’s strength lies in its people. More skilful, healthy, dedicated and loyal its people, more its development envisaged. A nation becomes physically powerful when its ethnographic agents work homogenously. A homogenous population develops strong social cohesiveness, which in turn gives rise to collective responsibility & community spirit.

A Nationalist Brain sees the future through the past, the past where his very Socio-cultural Identity emerged. Many Historians put forth their argument that the “concept of Nationalism” was transported from the western world to India during the Colonial era. But I say, they argued so only to hide their Inferiority complex arising out of the diachronic problem of personal identity.

Indian Nationalism, we may call it as “Hindu Nationalism” has distinctive characteristics, unlike western Nationalism.  Hindu Nationalism has its root since Vedic times. “Pandit Narahari Narayan Bhide defines Rastra (Nation) as follows: The Feeling of eternal goal of human life which makes the life celestial and elegant, and the race, language, literature, community of economic interest, tradition, country, administration of the state and awareness in the invasion of foreigners which are found within the psychology being expresses with those seven organs, is the nationality or Rashtriya. The people having such Rashtriya is a rastra and the member of such rastra is the Rashtriya.” (Nation and Nationalism in the Vedic Literature: A study, Shiva Acharya, 2000, page-2)

In Vedas, the Rastra & Rashtrapati both synonymous to the word “Indra”, the Indra refers to Rastra as a whole, a nourisher, a protector, and the giver of all worldly pleasures. There are several Vedic verses like “Ayam gha saturo ma’d Indrasya Bardhita Priya...”(Rig Veda 10 mandala 25 sukta) necessarily depicts the character of a Rastra.

In Rig Veda 7^th Mandal 6^th chapter (7/84 hymn) the Supreme advises the subjects & their King how to attain a strong, powerful, peaceful and wealthy nation.  

In this hymn, it is advised to be Industrious and Healthy, be wealthy through righteous effort, never dissatisfy the Truthful intellectuals, nurture your population, granary and domesticated animals, be self-sufficient, never bow before any sinful for your needs and all these things should mean to attain supreme Brahm.

And all the above advice has been remained as touching stone of the Hindu life. Hindu civilisation brought all the good things whether it is precious knowledge or precious goods from every corner of the world (aano bhadra kratavo yantu vishwatah’dabdhyaso apritaso udridah).

A consistent Scholar and a Logical Researcher will agree that India’s Life and its Religion are inseparable. Even the most debated the 1995 judgement of the Supreme Court also observed the same thing.

The 1^st fundamental thing about the Hindu religion and its understanding to its native lans speaks much about the Hindu Nationalism. The Hindu regards its Rastra as Mother Land, it adores its native land as sacred as a mother. It adheres, Janani Janbhumic’a Swrgad’api Gariyasi (Mother& Motherland both are far superior to Heaven) (Ramayan, Yudha kanda)

It is widely believed that every civilisation has growth and decay (law of civilisation and decay, by Brook Adams) and it is simply not a belief but numerous pieces of evidence are there to support it.

There are several factors which contributed to the decay of a civilisation which is otherwise called “Societal collapse” However, the Indian Civilisation escaped that natural process (!) You can say, Time eschewed the mundane edifices of Indus Civilisation but the intrinsic characteristics remained almost the same even after 7 thousand years (!). There is a big, big the question, How (?)

The factors like economical, Environmental, social and cultural is responsible for the death of a civilisation. There is any authenticate evidence of Environmental cause which ruined the Indo-Civilisation but there were many instances where the alien rulers tried to destroy the civilisation by manipulating it’s rich economical, Social and cultural ecosystem. The outcome of the manipulations was not yielded immediate result but weaken the edifice bit by bit and after 1200years, in 21^st century we are feeling the jolt(!).

It is believed that when a civilisation reaches its dusk, some structural modification usually carried out like, the civilisation becomes egalitarian, de-specialization of traditional skills, destratification of social structure, decentralization (Growing of Individual liberty), destructuralization of the ancient Institutions and depopulation. From the above points, it is clear that Indo-civilisation which survived long 7000/8000 years now at the stage of dusk(!) then what is the possible remedies?

The Only solution is the Renaissance of Hinduism.

(Continued...)

How much optimistic is Modinomics?

Lambodar Prasad Dash

On 5^th October, almost one year after the implementation of Demonetisation, addressing the company secretaries Narendra DB Modi, The Prime Minister of India said, some get a sound sleep at night only after proliferate Pessimistic notion about the Government and on the Economy. According to the Human behavioral psychology, it is a sign of self-soothing expression, but his remark to the critics really mean?

Before digging into the Prime Minister Narendra DB Modi’s Economic policy and how optimistically it is taking the Country’s Economy growth forward, it is amusingly relevant to point out the possible inspiration which shaped his understanding.

Rashtriya Swayamsevak Samgha (RSS) which is the topmost advisory council to the present day BJP government on Statecraft and External affairs mostly influenced by Kautilya @Chanakya. There is no wrong to get inspiration from the great man, who laid the foundation stone of the Democratic Monarchical system and developed a pan Indian Spirit. But it is something abnormal with the brain that thinks which were relevant some 1500yrs ago can be implemented nowadays with exact significance.

Mr. Modi’s sudden announcement of Demonetisation, surprising announcement of various schemes, his Religio-Political gimmicks all are understandable from a chapter of Artha Shastra; the sloka (5.2.39-45) narrates how to exploit the gullibility of the people.(Kautilya- The Artha Shastra, L N Rangarajan, penguin)These include:

-Building overnight, as if it happened by a miracle, a temple or a sanctuary and promote the holding of fairs and festivals in honour of the miraculous deity;

- Exploiting an unnatural happening, such as an unseasonal flower or fruit, by making it into a divine phenomenon;

- Using secret agents to frighten people into making offerings to drive away an evil spirit;

- Playing tricks on people by showing a cobra apparently with many heads, or a stone cobra coming alive;

- selling remedies against evil occult manifestations.

If people are not taken in so easily, they should be frightened into doing so.

The next chapter also elaborates (5.2. 46-51) other methods of cheating to collect revenue. 

The Artha Shastra is not purely like modern day Economics. It is a treatise on statecraft and affairs of government and governed. Narendra Modi led government at the centre lacks this basic understanding about the economics. Why and How?

Firstly, the entire economic edifice and the administrative setup both good and bad are inherited from the previous government. But the Modi government has been evasive on this theory. Except for one or two instances, for some unavoidable circumstances, Modi government accepted the truth.

Secondly, which is, of course, the most perilous part that they always apprehensive to prove their stand right.

There may be a strong reason behind such approach; Firstly, BJP came to power by tarnishing every activity, schemes of the Congress-led UPA government, even though most of them were quite good and noble.  So it will backfire if they recognise it publicly. Secondly, if they recognise the legacy of the previous government, there leaves little room for them to prove they are doing the best.

This is the fundamental mistake of the Modi government which makes them further secretive in making economic and administrative affairs.

Since my focus is on the economic situation, with an apology I am taking out the administrative and Political issues and reserve it for another article.

Economics is Primary cogwheel of a person’s life. Throughout one’s life, economics will play a major role in determining what one do and how happy he is doing it. Not only individual’s life Economics equally vital for a country. It influences the affairs of the government and determines the wellbeing of the nation as a whole.

The “Laissez-faire” philosophy which since the beginning of the 19^th century has been the driving force to determine the course of democracy and the role of the government is now becoming more complex. The advancement of new technologies basically Digitisation there is a growing demand for the de-materialization, de-monetisation, and democratisation of information, currency, and resources. The contours of Economics are also expanding and overlapping other areas. As the Income is largely depending on how effectively the nation or the individual participating in the economic process. Every step towards a more intricate economy brings new problems and economic interrelationships.

However, it seems that Modi government has learned the importance of the above facts. Hence with more enthusiasm, it is trying to implement the digital transactions. It demonetised, Simplified the Tax regime, wants to store the electronic database of every individual’s. But the Truth is, all these noble economic steps inherited from the previous government. Since Modi Government inherited the idea only not the understanding, it is facing a setback in every implementation.

In my previous article, “countering the economic crisis, Modi govt is on the horns of dilemma” I have analysed how India had made the standstill economy vibrant and successfully countered the 2008- 2010 global financial crisis and put the country’s GDP all-time high at +9%. Modi Government inherited a hale and hearty economy with some revolutionary schemes to implement further. The concept of the healthy economic scenario is neither a big leap nor total shifting of the track, but a sustainable and equitable development.

Between 2004 and 2012 most states did well in poverty alleviation. The Reduction of the poverty was 10 to 15 percent. Although the poverty in some states like Nagaland, Mizoram, Arunachal Pradesh, Gujarat increased but the well known poor states like Bihar, MP, UP, Odisha, Rajasthan improved their “poverty reduction rank.” Other government data indicates that the increase in the urban poverty and large-scale migration to urban areas.

An economic life of a rural person is quite different from an urbanite. Even though they earn less than their urban counterparts they are somehow protected from the immediate impact of the unstable economic situation. Since, they highly relied on the simple life, dependence on home/local produced foods/goods, their monotonous diet, etc. Most of the Village folks live out his years never going more than 25miles (a rough estimation) from his home village.

Most of the Demonetisation sufferers are the urban poor and lower income groups, who left the village and earned their livelihood from the unorganised sector. There is no authentic data to show how much the unorganised sector affected by the demonetisation disaster. What the figures government are disseminating, likely to hoodwink the faults.

Many ministers including Finance minister, High rank officers narrated it was to give bolt to “Parallel Economy” run by “Black Money.” But there is no applied term in economics to describe Black Money; it is unaccounted money or untaxed money laundered in Tax heavens. The Parallel economy in its general usage refers to Black market. But in economics it has no negative sense, but a definition to bring more effective monitoring techniques. Economists like Feige defined it as, “hidden economy as including those economic activities which go unreported or are unmeasured by the prevailing techniques for monitoring economic activities.”

However, it is sure that the role of Hard currency for most of the activities in Black Market is highly implausible. On the other side there is an innocent world, where a Parallel economy has prevailed since time immemorial. It is the rural area which suffered most (though the impact varies from state to state depending upon the economic activities). How scanty the earning, it is hard earned from the unorganised sector. It never deposited in Banks, maneuvered by the unregistered local money lenders.

My firsthand experience says the demonetisation triggered the reverse migration. Many returned to the village. Ironically, before demonetisation, Modi Government contracted the budget allocation for many social welfare schemes. Due to contraction of the revenue allocation State governments were reluctant to spend on Infrastructure. The mining sector was under regression. The Market was highly susceptible because of the possible implementation of new tax order. Agriculture was under stress. Those who returned to villages found no employment immediately. For them, two optioned opened either they borrow money or sell and mortgage what they have. Modi Government totally closed its eye to all these factors.

Good Economy produces two things one is “Constant” another is “Equilibrium”. In Constant, like a cogwheel, it pulsates other things to run. Secondly, when a new economic composition brought forth it must give rise to a state of equilibrium. If the new economic order brings any capricious result it never termed as good economy.

In contrary, Modi Government arguably unwavering by debating that it is quite common to protest any novel Idea. However, this is rhetoric filled with a fallacy of Logic and reason.

Without rectification, the economic order, either in deliberation to implement its political agenda or to satiate its inferiority complex Modi Government has unabated in committing series of economic mistakes. It is a general sense of understanding that when the economic condition is highly volatile, one should not go for external aggression or become a perpetrator to the warlike situation. But Modi Government increased Defense budget, Undergone two warlike situations – Pathankot and Doklam Standoff, did surgical strikes. Conversely, in a fully employed economy, we must choose between guns and butter, If we use a big chunk of our productive resource for national defense our standard of living in civilian good is going to be correspondingly lower.

It is quite amazing that in one hand Modi government is talking to take India to a new height and showing dreams to make it Master of the World (Viswa Guru), on the other hand, it is tightening the noose around a healthy economy.

Before concluding my analysis, it is relevant to point out a major issue which may bring disaster to the Indian economy in the near future. As a close watcher of the world especially Indian Economy, I felt that the consumer behaviour of the Indians highly manipulated not by the market but by the Ruling Party (!). The demand for the variant goods now squeezed (may be due to various economic reasons) but there is a selective dissemination of demands, orientation for what to choose and what not to be chosen, imposed preference for a particular variety of goods. When we are competing with the world especially a neighboring country (China) which is very strong in the retail chain, such practice may bring the catastrophic result to many MSME sector and Innovations. It is imperative from the fact world market is skeptical to the “Make in India” products; Even The country’s own defense sector is not willing to absorb it.

Last though not the least, Now Modi Government planning for another blunder. It proposed to hold simultaneous elections. The argument for it is to reduce the burden of expenditure. But Modi Government should not forget that the Economy is a perennial process. The reformation only can be fruitful when you work persistently by remaining on the track. The early election may in distance future give some relaxation to the economy but the state exchequer which is already under the stress could be more brittle with this step.

By general agreement, it is the job of government to establish and enforce the basic rules to enable men to deal effectively together. Without understanding this, the slogan “collective effort, inclusive growth” will be an epithet of the abysmal dismay of Indian Economy.