Odisha Panchayat Poll 2017: BJP’s Vote raise is a gift not deliberate

Lambodar Prasad Dash

On 22^nd February, 2017, one day after Panchayat Election and a few hours before the beginning of Budget season Ruling Biju Janata Dal (BJD) supremo Naveen Patnaik patting his party MLAs at the Legislative Party Meeting advised not to dishearten and increase relation with the grass root voters. On the other hand, replying to the media, he said, he can give comment only after 25^th February, only after the official declaration of the results (!). These words send an alarm to opposition parties and others who are happy with the decreasing seats of BJD. Could BJD revive after this blow? Anything can happen in Politics, but it is relative to the situations which is unforeseen.

In the last article “Odisha Panchayat Poll 2017: BJD bleeds, BJP sucks, congress stucks” in pointed out how both BJD and BJP getting benefit from the weakness of the state congress party. Now I again am reiterating my opinion with a relative truth. In future, If Congress could revive, both the parties will suffer.

Let’s have looked into these election figures, in 2007 Panchayat Election, BJP and BJP were in a coalition government but choose a friendly fight. Consequently, BJD had secured 345 seats, Congress 303 seats, and BJP 129 seats. BJD had a majority in 15 districts, Congress had formed 11 Zilla Parishads with an absolute majority, BJP retains only two (Baragarh and Deogarh).

In 2012 panchayat election, BJD turned away from BJP, with whom it shared power for almost 9 years and fought independently. BJD got thumping result, it had made fresh inroads into congress and BJP territories like Kalahandi, Sambalpur, Sundergarh, Dhenkanal and seven other districts. It had captured 27 Zilla Parishads. BJP could not able to form a single Zilla Parishad. Similarly, Congress which had Presidents in 11 Zilla Parishads in 2007 has got a majority in Jharsuguda, Koraput and Kandhamal districts.

In 2012, BJD got whooping 651 ZP seats, while Congress lost almost 177 seats to BJD. BJP reduced to 36. Even Independent candidates did well than BJP, in total, they got 38 seats.

(Odisha CM Naveen Patnaik with BJP Union minister Dharmendra Pradhan, During a Swatchha Bharat Event-File Photo

In a recent poll, BJP’s has performed well in Angul, Bolangir, Baragarh, Dhenkanal, Kalahandi, Kendrapara, Khordha, Malkangiri, Mayurbhanja, Sambalpur, Sonepur and Sundergarh. Most of the districts except khordha, Kendrapara, Malkangiri and Dhenkanal are in Western Odisha. Western Odisha always regarded as stronghold of BJP, even national party leaders gave more focus on it during the 2014 general and assembly election. Almost all MLAs are from western parts. Before the Panchayat Election BJD already smelled its defeat in these parts, as its gimmick on Mahanadi Water dispute failed drastically. But BJPs remarkable performance in Kendrapara, which is regarded as BJD’s castle, Malkangiri, which was once strong hold of Congress and Khordha where no other parties except BJD has its presence is noteworthy.

Even though Bijaya Mahapatra, the brain behind BJD and Naveen Patnaik’s ace opponent is now with BJP, yet Local Leaders alleged that BJD’s recent defeat in Kendrapara is due to BJD MP Baijayant Jay Panda. It is said that he himself recommended to BJP 4 names for Zilla Parishad and all were elected. BJD captured Malkangiri from Congress but recently it lost peoples support due State government’s apathetic attitude towards (Japani encephalitis) JE deaths. Khrodha is politically sensitive as it is capital district and since 2000 BJD never lost a single election here. The lost is due to growing goondaism of BJD MLAs like Prashant Jagadev, and unworthy performance of MP Prasanna Patshani, popularly called as Chicken Baba among political satirists. Defeat in Dhenkanal , many believed that due to the political indifference of the BJD MP Tathagat Satpathy.

Naveen Patnaik with Baijayant Jay Panda and Tathagat Satpathy- File Photo

Prasanna Patashani (MP, Khrodha), Baijayant Panda (MP, Kendrapara) and Tathagata Satpathy (MP, Dhenkanal) are many times ostracized for their antiparty stance. But people’s support to BJP during the Panchayat election is like a gift but not deliberate. 

Odisha Panchayat Poll 2017: BJD bleeds, BJP sucks, congress stucks

Lambodar Prasad Dash

“We have no option, Congress cannot give us protection, so we supported BJP candidate,” this is a version of Jati Pradhan of Basuaghai Panchayat which is under the Bhubaneswar Ekamra assembly constituency. This is the assembly segment where Ashok Panda, state Tourism, and Culture Minister won three times consecutively. In 2012, all the candidates including Zilla Parishad were from ruling Biju Janata Dal(BJD). ZP member Sangram Paikaroy left BJD as he had an aspiration for the MLA ticket but denied in 2014 but denied. As there is no scope to get elected from a Congress ticket he joined BJP in 2016.

There are several such instances across the state where discontent BJD leaders either supported BJP or have got BJP ticket. In the fifth and final phase of Panchayat election ended on 21^st February, 2017 Ruling BJD which stood top in the last four phases got 61 ZP seats, BJP won 55 seats, Congress 9 and others 3 ((the Figures are real-time unofficial results, not declared by Election Commission))

The dramatic change of voting pattern in Odisha is an undoubtedly a great blow to the ruling BJD, who ruled the state almost for 17 years. But the Congress who has been remained main opposition pushed to the third position. It is not a great surprise to see the decreasing support of the ruling BJD as it is already reeling under anti-incumbency factor and growing discontent among the party leaders and cadres. But BJP’s impressive rise in the present Panchayat Election from the political dark state is point of analysis.  Earlier, BJP was in coalition with BJD almost for 9 years. In 2009, just before state assembly and general election BJD estranged BJP citing its alleged involvement in the Kandhamal violence. Most of the party leaders went into absurdity; they have further degenerated for their alleged involvement in most of the scams, Party remained without or feeble grass root organization and ambiguous leadership. Just before Panchayat election Party also under sharp criticism over the dilly-dallying the decision on the construction of dams over the upper course of the Mahanadi River by Chhattisgarh government.

In 2014 assembly and general election BJP’s performance was good in comparison to 2009 assembly and general election. In 2009, not a single MP got elected from BJP, only 6 of its candidates own in assembly poll. But in 2014, not only it fetched only one Parliament seat, but also in 10 parliament segments it was neck and neck fight and lost 10 thousand votes. The MLA seats also increased to 10. During the 2014 election, it was clear that BJP and BJD were feeding on the Congress vote bank, yet lion’s share had gone to BJD.

Since 2014, Odisha has been under the special focus of the BJP. Almost all the central leaders and Ministers visited Odisha more than once. Prime Minister Narendra Modi visited Odisha more than 5 times. It has also given 2 lucrative and important ministerial berths, one is Tribal ministry and another is petroleum and natural gas. Just before the 2014 general and assembly election many a leader from the wobbling congress party joined BJD, while discontented BJD supporters and leaders joined BJP, many even got selected to important office bearer posts, got a ticket and even elected. After victory of BJP in the national politics and INC’s shameful defeat in 2014 the disintegration of Congress and BJD grew manifold.

File Photo- Naveen During BJD rally at Bhubaneswar

File Photo- Prime Minister Narendra Modi

Out of total 850 ZP seats BJD won 435, BJP 314, Congress 56, others 16. In 2012, BJD won 651, Congress Stood second Position with 128 seats, BJP with 36 seats and others including Independent won 22 seats. (the Figures are real-time unofficial results, not declared by Election Commission)  This shows that Loss of Congress is not so high than BJD yet voters now seeing BJP as alternate to BJD.

Many leaders like Union Minister Dharmendra Pradhan, Party’s national general joint secretary(Organisational), Party President Basant Panda, State Prabhari Arun Singh may take credit for this remarkable victory , but the reality  is different.

It is apparent that even after the feeble grass root base BJP’s impressive rise was due to Narendra Modi. Similarly, in 2000 election BJP’s performance in the state at large governed by the charisma of Atal Bihari Vajpee.

There is a saying rural Odisha, Nephew becomes more joyful when he sees straw pile of his uncle. The impressive winning of BJP in the present Panchayt election could not strengthen the Party in near future. It will again lose its ground if Congress got strength, but it seems to be unattainable in coming Municipal election scheduled on 2018.