How much optimistic is Modinomics?

Lambodar Prasad Dash

On 5^th October, almost one year after the implementation of Demonetisation, addressing the company secretaries Narendra DB Modi, The Prime Minister of India said, some get a sound sleep at night only after proliferate Pessimistic notion about the Government and on the Economy. According to the Human behavioral psychology, it is a sign of self-soothing expression, but his remark to the critics really mean?

Before digging into the Prime Minister Narendra DB Modi’s Economic policy and how optimistically it is taking the Country’s Economy growth forward, it is amusingly relevant to point out the possible inspiration which shaped his understanding.

Rashtriya Swayamsevak Samgha (RSS) which is the topmost advisory council to the present day BJP government on Statecraft and External affairs mostly influenced by Kautilya @Chanakya. There is no wrong to get inspiration from the great man, who laid the foundation stone of the Democratic Monarchical system and developed a pan Indian Spirit. But it is something abnormal with the brain that thinks which were relevant some 1500yrs ago can be implemented nowadays with exact significance.

Mr. Modi’s sudden announcement of Demonetisation, surprising announcement of various schemes, his Religio-Political gimmicks all are understandable from a chapter of Artha Shastra; the sloka (5.2.39-45) narrates how to exploit the gullibility of the people.(Kautilya- The Artha Shastra, L N Rangarajan, penguin)These include:

-Building overnight, as if it happened by a miracle, a temple or a sanctuary and promote the holding of fairs and festivals in honour of the miraculous deity;

- Exploiting an unnatural happening, such as an unseasonal flower or fruit, by making it into a divine phenomenon;

- Using secret agents to frighten people into making offerings to drive away an evil spirit;

- Playing tricks on people by showing a cobra apparently with many heads, or a stone cobra coming alive;

- selling remedies against evil occult manifestations.

If people are not taken in so easily, they should be frightened into doing so.

The next chapter also elaborates (5.2. 46-51) other methods of cheating to collect revenue. 

The Artha Shastra is not purely like modern day Economics. It is a treatise on statecraft and affairs of government and governed. Narendra Modi led government at the centre lacks this basic understanding about the economics. Why and How?

Firstly, the entire economic edifice and the administrative setup both good and bad are inherited from the previous government. But the Modi government has been evasive on this theory. Except for one or two instances, for some unavoidable circumstances, Modi government accepted the truth.

Secondly, which is, of course, the most perilous part that they always apprehensive to prove their stand right.

There may be a strong reason behind such approach; Firstly, BJP came to power by tarnishing every activity, schemes of the Congress-led UPA government, even though most of them were quite good and noble.  So it will backfire if they recognise it publicly. Secondly, if they recognise the legacy of the previous government, there leaves little room for them to prove they are doing the best.

This is the fundamental mistake of the Modi government which makes them further secretive in making economic and administrative affairs.

Since my focus is on the economic situation, with an apology I am taking out the administrative and Political issues and reserve it for another article.

Economics is Primary cogwheel of a person’s life. Throughout one’s life, economics will play a major role in determining what one do and how happy he is doing it. Not only individual’s life Economics equally vital for a country. It influences the affairs of the government and determines the wellbeing of the nation as a whole.

The “Laissez-faire” philosophy which since the beginning of the 19^th century has been the driving force to determine the course of democracy and the role of the government is now becoming more complex. The advancement of new technologies basically Digitisation there is a growing demand for the de-materialization, de-monetisation, and democratisation of information, currency, and resources. The contours of Economics are also expanding and overlapping other areas. As the Income is largely depending on how effectively the nation or the individual participating in the economic process. Every step towards a more intricate economy brings new problems and economic interrelationships.

However, it seems that Modi government has learned the importance of the above facts. Hence with more enthusiasm, it is trying to implement the digital transactions. It demonetised, Simplified the Tax regime, wants to store the electronic database of every individual’s. But the Truth is, all these noble economic steps inherited from the previous government. Since Modi Government inherited the idea only not the understanding, it is facing a setback in every implementation.

In my previous article, “countering the economic crisis, Modi govt is on the horns of dilemma” I have analysed how India had made the standstill economy vibrant and successfully countered the 2008- 2010 global financial crisis and put the country’s GDP all-time high at +9%. Modi Government inherited a hale and hearty economy with some revolutionary schemes to implement further. The concept of the healthy economic scenario is neither a big leap nor total shifting of the track, but a sustainable and equitable development.

Between 2004 and 2012 most states did well in poverty alleviation. The Reduction of the poverty was 10 to 15 percent. Although the poverty in some states like Nagaland, Mizoram, Arunachal Pradesh, Gujarat increased but the well known poor states like Bihar, MP, UP, Odisha, Rajasthan improved their “poverty reduction rank.” Other government data indicates that the increase in the urban poverty and large-scale migration to urban areas.

An economic life of a rural person is quite different from an urbanite. Even though they earn less than their urban counterparts they are somehow protected from the immediate impact of the unstable economic situation. Since, they highly relied on the simple life, dependence on home/local produced foods/goods, their monotonous diet, etc. Most of the Village folks live out his years never going more than 25miles (a rough estimation) from his home village.

Most of the Demonetisation sufferers are the urban poor and lower income groups, who left the village and earned their livelihood from the unorganised sector. There is no authentic data to show how much the unorganised sector affected by the demonetisation disaster. What the figures government are disseminating, likely to hoodwink the faults.

Many ministers including Finance minister, High rank officers narrated it was to give bolt to “Parallel Economy” run by “Black Money.” But there is no applied term in economics to describe Black Money; it is unaccounted money or untaxed money laundered in Tax heavens. The Parallel economy in its general usage refers to Black market. But in economics it has no negative sense, but a definition to bring more effective monitoring techniques. Economists like Feige defined it as, “hidden economy as including those economic activities which go unreported or are unmeasured by the prevailing techniques for monitoring economic activities.”

However, it is sure that the role of Hard currency for most of the activities in Black Market is highly implausible. On the other side there is an innocent world, where a Parallel economy has prevailed since time immemorial. It is the rural area which suffered most (though the impact varies from state to state depending upon the economic activities). How scanty the earning, it is hard earned from the unorganised sector. It never deposited in Banks, maneuvered by the unregistered local money lenders.

My firsthand experience says the demonetisation triggered the reverse migration. Many returned to the village. Ironically, before demonetisation, Modi Government contracted the budget allocation for many social welfare schemes. Due to contraction of the revenue allocation State governments were reluctant to spend on Infrastructure. The mining sector was under regression. The Market was highly susceptible because of the possible implementation of new tax order. Agriculture was under stress. Those who returned to villages found no employment immediately. For them, two optioned opened either they borrow money or sell and mortgage what they have. Modi Government totally closed its eye to all these factors.

Good Economy produces two things one is “Constant” another is “Equilibrium”. In Constant, like a cogwheel, it pulsates other things to run. Secondly, when a new economic composition brought forth it must give rise to a state of equilibrium. If the new economic order brings any capricious result it never termed as good economy.

In contrary, Modi Government arguably unwavering by debating that it is quite common to protest any novel Idea. However, this is rhetoric filled with a fallacy of Logic and reason.

Without rectification, the economic order, either in deliberation to implement its political agenda or to satiate its inferiority complex Modi Government has unabated in committing series of economic mistakes. It is a general sense of understanding that when the economic condition is highly volatile, one should not go for external aggression or become a perpetrator to the warlike situation. But Modi Government increased Defense budget, Undergone two warlike situations – Pathankot and Doklam Standoff, did surgical strikes. Conversely, in a fully employed economy, we must choose between guns and butter, If we use a big chunk of our productive resource for national defense our standard of living in civilian good is going to be correspondingly lower.

It is quite amazing that in one hand Modi government is talking to take India to a new height and showing dreams to make it Master of the World (Viswa Guru), on the other hand, it is tightening the noose around a healthy economy.

Before concluding my analysis, it is relevant to point out a major issue which may bring disaster to the Indian economy in the near future. As a close watcher of the world especially Indian Economy, I felt that the consumer behaviour of the Indians highly manipulated not by the market but by the Ruling Party (!). The demand for the variant goods now squeezed (may be due to various economic reasons) but there is a selective dissemination of demands, orientation for what to choose and what not to be chosen, imposed preference for a particular variety of goods. When we are competing with the world especially a neighboring country (China) which is very strong in the retail chain, such practice may bring the catastrophic result to many MSME sector and Innovations. It is imperative from the fact world market is skeptical to the “Make in India” products; Even The country’s own defense sector is not willing to absorb it.

Last though not the least, Now Modi Government planning for another blunder. It proposed to hold simultaneous elections. The argument for it is to reduce the burden of expenditure. But Modi Government should not forget that the Economy is a perennial process. The reformation only can be fruitful when you work persistently by remaining on the track. The early election may in distance future give some relaxation to the economy but the state exchequer which is already under the stress could be more brittle with this step.

By general agreement, it is the job of government to establish and enforce the basic rules to enable men to deal effectively together. Without understanding this, the slogan “collective effort, inclusive growth” will be an epithet of the abysmal dismay of Indian Economy. 

Refugee, the Burden of Humanity

Lambodar Prasad Dash

We, Hindu’s believe Transmigration of soul. It is a belief that the Death and Birth are perpetual actions and no animate, even The GOD can defy the birth-death cycle. When GOD takes birth, as we say it reincarnation, it also follows the same law. Difference between ordinary man and GOD is; GOD reincarnate according to its will, but ordinary person has no control on it. He has to take numerous births (approximately 84 lakh) in anticipation of the salvation or realisation of self. During this long journey, the life at a particular body is like an asylum. He takes the shelter of a body according to its past karma (deed). It indicated that the action determines the place of asylum, where you are authorised to certain tasks.

It is a general conviction that when a person took the shelter (asylum) of GOD, all his deeds forgiven and he is given a chance to realise or to atone for his mistakes or allowed to do pious deeds to alleviate his sins. From the time immemorial, the Holy places have been regarded as asylum of GOD. In India, many sacred places Kasi (Varanasi), Ujjain, Puri (SriKhetra), Kedarnath, Badrinath falls in that category. A man who takes shelter there, he is free from any prosecution, can escape from the legal consequences.

Many great Saints opined that India, (Bharat Barsa in Jambhu Dwipa) is a place where a man get an opportunity to realise the self, can wash his sins. Therefore without caste, religious belief, gender discrimination a person allowed here to lead such life where he can get salvation by washing his sins.

A person who takes shelter of GOD usually renounces all worldly desires & pleasures which are inimical to the self-realisation or atonement. As his belongings what he has been accumulated unable to help to escape from the consequences of his misdeeds. His past world and life is quite different from the life under the GOD’s mercy. He must free from indulgence to become a disciplined, humble and loyal to the path of self-realisation.  

Many Hindu scriptures uphold the act of asylum to the people in distress and need. All prescribe that the ultimate duty of a person is the protection of the life and dignity of the asylum seeker. Many from the Sriram’s sena objected the idea of asylum to Vibhishan, the younger brother of Ravan*.

When Vibhishan came to Sriram with his four loyal followers, the Monkey chieftain Sugreeb in a skeptical ordered his army to prepare for possible attack. At this The words of Vibhishan to their concern were striking. He said, “In vain, I strove to turn him (Ravana) from his wicked designs and counseled him to restore seta and seek Raama’s forgiveness. All the response i got was disdain and public insult. Hence I am standing here before you. Renouncing Kingdom, Wife, Children, I seek service and sanctuary at Raama’s feet. I pray you, convey this information to Raama.”

Sugreeba Mistrusted the good faith of the Monster King’s brother and reported thus to Sriram, “Vibheeshana, the brother of Raavana, has come here with his four friends seeking sanctuary at your feet. They are standing there in the sky. ...These monsters are adepts in duplicity. They can make themselves invisible and do many other tricks. They have all the skill and courage of the wicked. One cannot trust them. ...They have come here to mix with us for subversive purposes or else they intend seeking an opportunity to assassinate the leaders in our camp. Whatever Vibheeshana may say, we cannot forget that he is the brother of our foe. By birth he belongs to the wicked Raakshasa Race.”

Everyone in the Srirama’s camp including the chief advisor Jambhaban declined to give shelter to Vibhishana. But Hanumana, the mighty warrior, most wise and loyal follower of srirama said, “...Vibheeshana has not approached us stealthily. He has come to us with frank openness and a clear object. What is there for scouts to discover about him? It has been said by some that his sudden advent is suspicious. But why? What wonder is there if Vibheeshana became disgusted with Raavana and foresaw his certain disgrace and defeat? What wonder is there if he recognised your heroic virtues and nobility and the certainty of your victory? “

When Sugreeba, the chieftain not satisfied with the suggestions of Hanuman, Srirama exhorted Sugreeba with gentle voice, “I see what you mean. But listen. It is natural for kings to suspect brothers and neighbour kings. Good kings who entertain no such suspicion are exceptions....I conclude therefore that, he has no sinister motive against us in coming here for refuge. Letus go further and grant that he has eyes on the kingdom, expecting Raavana’s defeat at our hands. Even in this ambition there is nothing wrong....I would accept him without hesitation. How then can i reject his (raavana) brother who has done me no wrong?”

In Mahabharat, When Baka, the heron who is supposed to be incarnation of Dharma, the God Righteousness put questions to Yudhisthira, the elder brother of Pandavas and promised to return the lives of his brothers if only the answer is correct. The first question is; what is Happiness? Yudhisthira answered*, “A person who cooks vegetables in his own home, who has no debts and who is not in exile, is truly happy.” And the Last question is; what is Highest Dharma in the world? Yudhisthira replies: “Compassion is the highest Dharma.” It is certainly that un-cruelty and non-injury is not compassion, it is feeling the pain and sorrow alike and sharing one’s own happiness with the distressed.

In this context, I remember the answer of J Krishnamurthy to why people quarrel? – Do you know why small children quarrel? They are quarreling for the toys, right. Older persons also quarrel/fight but not exactly for toys but for Reputation, Ego, Property, Power etc. These are like toys for them.

Animals also fight for territory. The belonging to their territory is more or less biological; the preservation of territory is one of the important issues for their survival. According to the territorial behaviour of animals, their territory is six types according to their need. They can compromise with the home range (which usually overlaps with) but can’t with their territories. They protect their territory with different acts from sent marking to defense. Very often they intimidate their intruders and defend their territory by Ritualised Aggression, without engaging in fights which are expensive in terms of energy and risk of injury.

Calhoun (1956, 1962) conducted an experiment in which a colony of Norway rats was made to live in an overcrowded pen. Although the rats were allowed to roam in various compartments, they ended up living together in one pen. Calhoun termed this phenomenon “pathological togetherness”. The rats’ fertility was lowered and their life span was shortened. Mann sums up by saying; “In mice, overcrowding in laboratory cages leads to abnormal sexual behavior, decreased reproductive and nursing capacities, and aborted pregnancies, deficient maternal care for the young and disrupted next building.” (Mann, 1969, P. 17)

We, Human beings are not exactly like animals, much civilised, intelligent and intellectually superior. The territorial behaviour of human beings often termed as “Hunger for Culture” William Langland rightly described – “For he has given you gifts for governing yourself freely; these are Wit and Free Will; each creature has its portion, Flying fowls and fish and Mammals, But man has the most, and is the most blameworthy.”

The human territory broadly is three kinds- Tribal, Family, and Personal. All the Social instincts are any way connected to National territory, Nationalism or patriotism. Territorial behaviour is at large related to a homogenous group consisting of a few members, who share common culture, behavioral pattern. According to Desmond Morris, “Today each nation flies its own flag, a symbolic embodiment of its territorial status. But patriotism is not enough. The ancient tribal hunter lurking inside each citizen finds himself unsatisfied by membership in such a vast conglomeration of individuals, most of whom are totally unknown to him personally. He does his best to feel that he shares a common territorial defense with them all, but the scale of the operation has become inhuman.”

History is evident that many indigenous tribes perished in the process of demarcation of the territorial unit of a nation. They became refugee in their own land where they lived for generations. For them their personal and family life is dearer than any other sociological issues like Religion, Culture.

According to the UNHCR, a refugee, generally speaking, is a displaced person who has been forced to cross national boundaries and who cannot return home safely. Such a person may be called an asylum seeker until granted refugee status by the contracting state or the UNHCR. According to the UN 1951 Refugee Convention adopted, “...owing to well founded fear of being persecuted for reasons of race, religion, nationality, membership of a particular social group or political opinion, is outside the country of his nationality and is unable or, owing to such fear, is un willing to avail himself of the protection of that country; or who, not having a nationality and being outside the country of his former habitual residence as a result of such events, is unable or, owing to such fear, is unwilling to return to it.”

Swami Vivekananda in his “on himself” said, “I believe in God, and i believe in man. I believe in helping the miserable. I believe in going even to hell to save others.” (I believe..., Chapter 10).

Those who displaced forcefully from his own land (country) usually choose a country which is secure, humane and tolerant to take asylum. It is apparent that the dislocation from the own land is more pathetic and painful.  According to Vivekanada’s words, “One wants to lose the individual in the universal, one renounces, flies off, and tries to cut himself off from all associations of the body, of the past, one works hard to forget even that he is a man; yet, in the heart of his heart, there is a soft sound, one string vibrating, one whisper, which tells him, East or West, home is best.”

So, everyone who renounces his land, home waits for the time to return to his land, own land where he born and brought up. So, it is the generous responsibility of a person to facilitate the displaced person to make arrangements to return to his own land safely and dignifiedly. It has been seen that United Nation and some other nations who give shelter to the refugees not making much effort on it. Consequently, the host nation faces some most frightening issues which are quite hard to address.

“In a way, to be indifferent to the suffering is what makes the human being inhuman. Indifference, after all, is more dangerous that anger and hatred...indifference is not a beginning, it is an end. And therefore indifference is always the friend of the enemy.” (The perils of Indifference, Elie Wiesel, Speeches that changed the world P-268).

At present context when most of the nations’ politics are driving by Right wing Nationalism, the Patriotism is now turned into chauvinism or jingoism. The Political set up which rules want to thwart the liberalism and secular traditions, which the whole world (!) in concept accepted after the horror of the World Wars. Even though Refugee is a complex socio-economical issue, but complete indifference to it warrants more complex problems endangering the very basic existence of humanity. The indifference to the Refugees including internally displaced persons will give rise to a permanent mass psychological degeneration like chronic terrorism and inhuman activities.

Kautilya, besides the great social, administrative reformer and statesman, he is also the forerunner of the Statecraft, Nationalism, Patriotism never banned the humanitarian support even to the enemy during calamity, crisis but urged to be cautious and judicious dealing with the asylum seekers. He left to the choice of the king of the host country to act according to the safety, capacity and resource of the nation. He further prescribed that the giving asylum of a different country should be decided according to the foreign policies; however, he didn’t set down rigid foreign policy.

He further emphasized that the foremost duty of the Ruler is to bring the confidence of the subject, whether they are from the foreign land or the subjects of the conquered territory.  Kautilya has not mentioned explicitly about the refugees but mentioned that people from the foreign land should be allowed to live in a village, which is distinctly controlled under certain restrictions and relaxation.

The instructions of Kautilya are somehow relevant to certain situations, but the world scenario is changed drastically since then. The pressure of land and resources are growing according to the growth of the population. We cannot drive them to a virgin land to settle or to extend humanitarian support for them for the unlimited period of time without giving them the right to live with dignity and freedom.  In such situation refugee issue certainly, calls immediate solution not for a single country but for the whole world. It is a burden of Humanity.  

*excerpts from C.Rajgopalachari’s Ramayan – The Vaanaras Doubt, The doctrine of surrender and grace

* Mahabharat’s Dharma, The difficulty of being good, by Gur Charan Das 

Countering the Economic Crisis, Modi Govt is on the horns of dilemma

Lambodar Prasad Dash

I’m neither a great economist like Dr Manmohan Singh, Ex-Prime Minister of India who can predict accurate figures on Economic Crisis nor a panel expert in live newsrooms who are full of biased and half-knowledge of the economic situation. I belong to a state where except 100 odd law makers, mining owners, industrialists, and High-rank officers all are lower middle class or poor. I usually travel extensively through rural Odisha and some part of eastern India. From my first hand experience of the economic situation I can say that the present Economic situation in India is like on the horns of dilemma.

Prime Minister Narendra Modi had Visualised a “New India”, in other words to make some of the Indian cities as “showcase” of development. He knew the situation of urban-centric development, as in 2011 among 100 fastest growing cities of the world India has 25.  He also well calculated the strength and their aspirations of the youth population of India, which stood almost 50% of the total 132 crore populations.  Another important aspect of the youth population is the percentage of married women in younger age groups (15-19) has declined drastically from 70% (1961) to only 20% (2011). Student enrolment in higher education if highest which is almost 80%. With these demographic figures this decade has seen a major shift of people’s expectation and political orientation.

Since the days of major economic reforms in 1990s, the Indian economy gradually started competing with world’s other nearly developed countries especially Brazil, South Africa, China. The per capita income also increased from 1130 US dollar in 2006 to 1646 US dollar in 2014. The economy of India at 2014 was almost strong and vibrant. Pockets of people were deep enough to invest in more education, Health, housing. The labour statistics also shifted from agriculture to infrastructure & mining. The internal migration from Rural India to Urban areas is also increased manifold during the decade. In 2001 census the total internal migration stands at around 31 crore, whereas in 2011 it is 43.36 crore. According to the recent Economic Survey of India-2016-17, the growth of migration for economic reasons is 4.5% annually (!)

The UPA government total spending on social welfare schemes stood 1.7% of the total GDP. The BJP led NDA government in the last fiscal (2016-17) increased the spending but the overall percentage remained almost at the previous figure. Worsening the situation further Narendra Modi Government squeezed the diversification of social welfare schemes.

Initially, the Narendra Modi’s development model seems to be correct when it was at planning level but latter, at implementation stage it developed many technical glitches. The major cause of these problems is the immaturity to the changing economic scenarios. For example, according to the Asian Development Bank estimation for 2014-15 the Extreme Poverty percentage of India stood at 21.9% , which means around 30 crore people are living under this category. But according to the World Poverty Clock real time data (on 9.45pm, 21/09/2017) the total poverty population in India stood at 14.1% of the total world population which is whooping 91 crore people are below extreme poverty line (per day income below 1.9 US Dollar). In such situation, Modi Government started a direct money transfer scheme under Ambitious Pradhan Mantri Ujjwala Yojana (PMUY) with free LPG connection to 5 crore families below poverty line. There are many instances where as a rural poor sold its LPG cylinder to another affluent person or many subscribing these benefits on their names. These instances are further increased after the fall of employment due to Demonetization. The poor families used this benefit as a source of income.

Similarly in the Smart City Mission the rate of Rural to Urban migration, the percentage of migration for economic reason not taken in to account. For example, according to an NGO working for slum areas in Odisha, within last three years the slum population of Bhubaneswar increased, 6-7 new unauthorised slums established having population more than 7 thousand. Government is striving between their resettlement and implementation of Smart City. In the September, 2017 monsoon session Odisha assembly passed the slum dwellers act which guarantees 160 square feet land for the construction of house.  This act further made the vision of smart city messy.

After criticisms from many quarters for growing unemployment, weakening GDP, Growing fiscal deficits,  fattening the NPA of Banks, GST impinged inflation on 20 September, 2017 an expert committing meeting was chaired by Finance Minister Arun Jaitley, where it was decided that Government soon to revive the investment plans to counter the ongoing economic crisis. The present economic crisis being felt at Macro level, the shifting of investment plans might create a ruckus in FDI investments. The investors will be more skeptical towards the government. This situation might create more ripples than pacifying the situation.  His stress for the Universal basic income scheme indicates the decreasing funding of public welfare schemes and increase schemes for Job creation. This is quite difficult to manage. If Government is mulling for more shifting of tax slabs and structures the manufacturing market will be put under threat, which is already under pressure. Last though not the least concern, whether the new shift of investment can fulfill the aspirations and dreams of the young generation which were largely hyped by Narendra Modi during his 2014 election campaign.

The Hashtag: Block Narendra Modi

Lambodar Prasad Dash

We usually sit for “khatti”, a local terminology for a free forum of people, typically with 10 to 15 members sits regularly at a definite public place generally near a tea shop for formal talks. I always a latecomer among the khatti members but today morning with everyone’s surprise I marked my attendance earlier than others. Last night I could not sleep well due to the anxiety mixed with grief and depression after going through series of threads reacting to the murder of noted Kannada journalist and Activist Gauri Lankesh, news items, googling about the information on the murder of some rationalists like Pansare, Dhabolkar and kalburgi.

Characteristically most writers, activists, journalists, politicians equivocally condemned the killings. As all the activists who were getting killed had been linked to the left-wing thoughts, liberals in attitude, seculars in their belief and rationalists in their approach, and all belonging to Karnataka state. Their activism was largely directed at casteism, communalism, religious bigotism and anti-establishment which invited the wrath of the communal and religious forces like Sreeramsena, Bajrang Dal and Sanatan Samstha. The information had not taken my sleep but the reactions of persons who are critical about the activisms of Gauri Lankesh. Their response to the murder disgraced all the norms of human dignity. Even they were not set back to abuse vehemently when Union Ministers like Ravishankar Prasad, Rajyabardhan Singh Rathore had come forward to criticize such reactions. Most of the abusers and trolls are followed by Prime Minister Narendra Modi and they also proudly mentioned it in their social media profiles. This was not the first case, earlier on several occasions Prime Minister had come under strong criticism from different quarters, but the trend has not succumbed to.

Meanwhile, I was scratching my head how to react such heinous trolls, around 11.45pm I just come through a tweet from a Dr Rakesh Parikh condemning such abusers and following them by PMO Modi, simultaneously it urged for blocking Narendra Modi’s personal twitter handle. Immediately I RTed it and blocked Narendra Modi’s account in protest. By then the hashtag had only two posts. But in the next morning while I was browsing the internet waiting for other members to join with a bolt from the blue I found the Hashtag #BlockNarendraModi was already lifted by major news sites.

However, scaling up the ignominy I also came across a news item where BJP IT cell head Amit Malviya who was also among the abusers had come forward with a statement that as Prime Minister is responsive to general public…he followed by many a people….how can he demand a character certificate from them before following back(!) (The words are not exact but reflected the similar meaning)

With all these developments and its impact, I had decided to have a discussion on it. When my friends sat to kick-start our Khatti program with a cup of warm tea.  I vociferously put my point by quoting “as is the king so are the subjects” at least who adore him. Some senior members yet to give their comments, as I expected a series of questions were put to me by a political activist friend- Could it be possible to create “mass hysteria” through propaganda (?) If it is possible, then why not other political parties not thriving on it or at least able to create for them (?)

The answer to these questions might not be easy to present in a nutshell, but I tried to convince him that through a planned propaganda one can manipulate the weakness of the human mind as his perception is selective and also the retention. Since he is a strong adherent to Narendra Modi’s hyped image he took my argument for granted. However, I was not in a mood to step back and had come with all preparations, I continued;

A Political Party which got an absolute majority in 2014 general election with 31.34% popular votes out of total 65.3% voter turnout. It won 282 seats out of 545 members in Lower house, which is 51.9% all seats.  58 MPs out of 245 Members in Upper House, 1197 MLAs across the India and 18 states ruled directly or indirectly with its allies. Of course, without any doubt, all these achievements are remarkable for a political party which reestablished its existence 37 years back, after the disintegration of Janata Party. The Indian Voters gave their mandate to a political party for the first time in the last two decades with such huge support. This Implies two inseparable issues of a democracy, Firstly, Voters relied upon BJP ( Bharatiya Janata Party) as a political party more than others to solve the existing issues, Secondly, in turn, they accepted the ideologies Of BJP which had been remained at a bay. These two issues are not separated with a firm demarcated line but several overlapping contours.

It is evidently much accepted rule that Power comes with responsibility. In a democratic system, power goes from bottom to top. Initially, a political party makes the people responsive towards the prevailing problems and then places its alternate solutions through manifestos. In the next stage, it shows its willingness to take the responsibility to solve the problems and seeks the support of the people to handover the power to govern. All these activities are termed as political campaigns. These Political campaigns designed in such a way that it can successfully persuade voters to rely upon their agenda and manifesto. When the Love for Power permeates the true spirit of a democratic process, Political parties polarizes instead of persuasion; influence the voters through propaganda rather than awareness; manipulate the mandate through government machinery. All these perverted practices not so effective for a mature mind rather very successful for adolescents. When a country has more than 50% of its population is below the age of 25 years and more than 65% below the age of 35, the propaganda, influence, polarization works astoundingly.

In 2014 general election, around 23.1 million voters were from the age group of 18-19 years (!) In 2014 general election BJP got 171,660,230 votes. The statistics show that the BJP pocked most of the new voters. All welcomed BJP as an alternative to Congress as they are experienced only the government of Congress-led UPA. The psychology of adolescent mind according to Bradley Busch, Psychologist is – they are more likely to take risks, be sleepy, misread emotions, give in to peer pressure and lack of self-control. According to the United Nations, the average age of India’s population will be 29 years, and dependency ration should be just over 0.4%. With all these youth dominant demographics BJP set its development dream sail for 2020. 

BRICS-2017’s ‘counter terrorism’ agenda: Modi Govt’s Hype Vs Reality

Lambodar Prasad Dash

After a complex search to find out what is the exact terminology which can deliver exact position of Narendra Modi, Prime Minister of India on Counterterrorism in the 9^th BRICS summit, I found an Interesting Idiom mostly appropriate-‘Try to steal someone’s Thunder’.

According to Oxford Dictionary of Idioms, the meaning is, ‘Try to win praise for oneself by pre-empting someone else’s attempt to impress’.  As we go deep, the origin of the Idiom also proves equal dramatic; The critic and playwright John Dennis (1657-1734) invented a new method of simulating the sound of thunder in the theater, which he employed in his unsuccessful play 'Appius and Virginia'. Shortly after his play had finished its brief run, Dennis attended a performance of 'Macbeth' in which the improved thunder effect was used, and he is reported to have exclaimed in a fury: 'Damn them! They will not let my play run, but they steal my thunder.

However, as an Indian to prove one’s “True Nationalism Identity” one must accept that in BRICS summit Narendra Modi graciously own the battle against Islamist terrorism even though it is like ‘Error of the first kind” according to the null hypothesis in statistics.

According to the hypothesis, this is an error which leads one to conclude that a supposed effect or relationship exists when in fact it doesn't. For example, a test that shows a patient to have a disease when in fact the patient does not have the disease.

In the joint declaration of the 9^th BRICS summit, there are 3 specific components and 70 resolutions. Under the International Peace and Security component, there are 24 resolutions.  In it all the BRICS countries equivocally rejected any type of violence, radicalization and called international community to work for international peace, security, and to promote and protect Human Right. The joint declaration gives foremost importance to the conflicts and crisis of Syria, Israel-Palestine and other Middle East; Iraq, Yemen and crisis in the Gulf countries; North Korea; African Countries like Congo, Libya, South Sudan, Somalia and Central Africa Republic, Western Sahara; and Afghanistan.  All these countries directly related to Russia’s Interest.  

In the context of Afghanistan, the declaration seriously concerned about the terrorist organizations like the Taliban, ISIL/DAISH, Al-Qaida and its affiliates including Eastern Turkistan Islamic Movement, Islamic Movement of Uzbekistan, the Haqqani network, Lashkar-e-Taiba, Jaish-e-Mohammad, TTP and Hizb ut-Tahrir. Further it is mentioned two important points to extend support – one is, the Moscow Format of consultations on Afghanistan and “Heart of Asia-Istanbul Process” and other is, multimodal connectivity projects to promote peace and stability.

If one analyze thoroughly, both the points nowhere related to the India. As the American president Donald Trump re-affirmed its military position on Afghanistan, Both Russia and China have remained skeptical to it. Secondly, For China it is not Pakistan but Afghanistan is more important when it comes to its much ambitious China-Pakistan Energy corridor and One Belt One Road (OBOR), as both the routes linked to Kabul, the capital of Afghanistan. Extending its ambition further China plans to expand the route beyond the Afghanistan and Pakistan Border. The threat of Islamist terrorist organizations is much perceived after recentattacks and warnings. (We can recall the Pakistan’s attempt to link the terrorist attack on china’s construction employees in Pakistan to Kulbhushan Jadhav.)

Even though China had unsuccessfully persuaded India to sign OBOR earlier, but it has not withdrawn itself to push the issue diplomatically. China knows without standing firm or sending stern warning against the terrorist organizations it cannot successfully complete its dream project either in Pakistan or in Afghanistan. In addition to this, China also knows well that Russia is the only country which can safe guard its interest in this reason.  

Besides this, the BRICS economic agenda is more or less created diplomatically to subdue the influence of the World Bank especially in Asia, where the monopoly of the US and other European Countries is discernible.

Under the Narendra Modi’s three year rule India’s External Diplomacy has developed some of its serious flaws except increase the number of “awkward hugging”. He has failed to bring a clear consensus on its economic and diplomatic issues. Diplomatic relationship with its neighboring countries is at a mediocre level. On the other hand China extended its sway both economically and diplomatically over all the surrounding countries of India. In the last three years, from the south-east Asia region, there is no single country which has spoken a word in support of India in its hue and cry against Islamist Terrorism, From the Middle East except Israel no country stands behind ( at least for the time being) India on this issue. China never categorically supported India on it.

In the 9^th BRICS summit, India’s only perceptible benefit comes from the 40^th resolution which states that Russia and China will support the aspiration of Brazil, South Africa and India for a greater role in United Nations Security Council.  But in the context of acting against Islamist terrorist groups, India can only console itself that two/three terrorist operatives which are posed danged to its internal security and hype it as its “great win” even knows well that it cannot yield a desirable result.